Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Mahathir at it again

From the Star:

The amount of money spent to build the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR) project does not justify the number of jobs it could generate, said Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
“If you are going to spend RM60bil to RM100bil so that thousands of people can work, that's not very efficient,” he said to reporters after hosting Ramadan break-of-fast event at Putrajaya International Convention Centre (PICC).
Again, the PM Mahathir doesn't seem to get it.  He looks at construction and the jobs it creates.  Instead, I would suggest to think about construction and what it does for the country.

For a backstory into the PM, lets look at his crowning glory, Putrajaya.  At that time, Malaysia was under increasing international pressure for an IMF bailout.  Backed into a corner, he instituted capital controls.  Also, many media outlets credit the construction of Putrajaya as what has brought Malaysia out of recession for the many jobs it created.  Dr. M should be pleased.

However, all these items are debateable whether this is what has saved Malaysia in the past.  But lets look at what Putrajaya does.  It's a whole bunch of buildings, pretty much in the middle of nowhere.  Outside of government hours, it's a dead city.  To me, it does nothing for Malaysia.

Now what does the HSR do for the country.  Why do we need this?  well, we don't.  Nothing is needed per say.  But what does it do? It gives an almost direct connection between the heart of KL and Singapore. 

The only other method is through flying, but unfortunately, one has to endure 1 hour of traffic minimum to the airport, two hours of waiting for the flight, expensive cab fares, landing, deplaning,  waiting for baggage, delays, etc. 

Hopefully the cost can be negotiated down, but the cost when I first heard about it was 10-20 billion ringgit.  Don't be so hasty to say no Dr. M. 

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Interesting times to be a blogger

After a hiatus off a few years where not much seemed to be happening in the Malaysian markets.  We have a new government.  Lots to talk about.

1.  Pakatan Harapan has won the government

So how Pakatan Harapan won is such an interesting topic.  Malaysia doesn't have any reliable polling methods, so I don't think it is surprising to most people in Malaysia and people that are objective that the opposition could potentially win.

However, the media and BN has painted a picture where the the opposition had little chance and rightfully so due to sneaky tactics by the national ruling party.  This goes to show, that short of martial law, even a ruling party in a democratic nation can still lose as people eventually will vote. 

2.  What does this mean for Malaysia

At first the new government didn't seem like it would do a lot at this juncture in time.  But a few weeks have went by and the stock market is growing cautious at whether the new government will be competent enough to lead Malaysia towards higher growth.

Mahathir is hit and miss sometimes when it comes to the economy.

From Bloomberg:

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said he will cancel a proposed multibillion-dollar high-speed railway link to Singapore, scrapping a signature project of his predecessor Najib Razak in what he called a move to cut costs.
The article goes on to give the reason that the country will not make financial profit from this project.  Many projects don't make a "profit" that doesn't mean they don't do things for the country. 

The MRT is definitely not profitable nor is for many countries in the world, yet it saves massive amounts of time for people and helps cities to thrive. 

HSR is a means to an end.  a successful venture with Singapore and who knows, the causeway Mahathir has been so adamant about expanding with Singapore might get accomplished. 

Another issue which Mahathir in my view has not been very tactful:

From the South China Morning Post:

Should Mahathir Mohamad’s Malaysia election win worry Chinese investors in Johor’s Forest City?
Statements seem to indicate that he doesn't seem to understand nation building as he should.  The Chinese migration has brought an economic boom to countries like Canada and Australia over the last decade.  What is Malaysia giving up for this kind of money?  some land in Iskandar Johor that no one north of Johor really cares about. 

Like it or not, the country can not do without the revenue stream China brings.  Look at the almost 1 trillion dollar in debt Malaysia has.

Mahathir and Pakatan needs to let things fall where they may and do what they were elected to do, clean up the government, modernize archaic policies such as the bumiputera NEP  and leave in place government checks and balances so another 1MDB scandal never happens again.


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