Thursday, June 14, 2018

3 unexpected reasons Malaysia online shopping will flourish!

Just a little backstory of what has formed the premise for this post, I've just gotten back from a long trip in Australia and it is fascinating to see the differences between economies.  Traveling in Australia has been a fantastic experience and something I probably would have never done on my own accord and owe it to my other half.

Anyways, lets get on with the reasons:

1.  Malaysia has a workforce where many parents both work while raising a child


So, what does having both parents working have to do with online shopping?  When both parents work, little time is spent doing other endeavors, such as going to shopping malls.  But alas people will argue, look at Malaysian shopping malls!  They are world class, always full on the weekends, surely you (me) are wrong!

I don't think I am, and here is why.  If you ever go to the shopping mall on weekdays, it is generally empty.  In Australia, the opposite is true, weekdays, in most shopping centres, you can barely find parking.  But who might you ask is filling up Australian shopping centres?  That's right it is the non-working spouse with their kids.  

Something I noticed, with Australia's high minimum wage structure and ultra expensive child care, one parent usually does not work.  The economics simply don't justify it for the most part.  Childcare in Australia is 2800 AUD per month per kid.  Even with government subsidies at 1500 AUD, it seems not worth it for a lot of families, especially with two kids.

The opposite is true for Malaysia.  Here, child care is much cheaper, from daycare to having maids at home to watch over the kids.  With two parents able to earn so much more, it is a no brainer for both parents to work.  

Therein lies the disadvantage for shopping malls, two working parents is not good for shopping malls which only see massive traffic on weekends and holidays.  So this unusual demographic culture helps put the big competitors of online shopping at bay.  

2. Time  


If you ever go to a shopping mall, it is actually a fairly taxing trip, mentally, physically, eats up your day.  30 minutes spent finding parking, walking to the store you want to buy items, paying, carrying the shopping items, etc.   Yes, eventually people will be put off by the time spent walking up and down the escalators, compared to online browsing over at shoppee or lazada.

3.  Strong earning power of households with two parents


Households with two streams of incomes earn a fair amount of money and while much of it is likely saved or used to pay off necessities of life items, some of it does leak out to other activities.  A two income household lacks time.  Families generally don't want to be hassled when it comes to spending their hard earned time to go shop around for products.  

To people like these, money spent is about how much time it saves, and the quality of items produced.  If quality can be guaranteed, then it solves a lot of issues for time-strapped dual income families.  Online shopping as we know does save time, we just need some kind of quality guarantee.  To some extent, brands do offer some kind of quality assurance, but sometimes its not enough.

Nonetheless, the time saved is great when going online compared to going out.  The earning power of a dual income household trend in Malaysia bodes well for online shopping. 


Monday, June 11, 2018

Does a leopard change its spots? Dr. M wants to build another National car company!

From the star:

Malaysians have had a mixed reaction to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s announcement that the Government intends to launch a new national car company.
Speaking during a dialogue at the 24th Nikkei Conference on the Future of Asia on Monday, the Prime Minister said the new Government is thinking of starting another national car, perhaps with an Asian country such as Thailand, South Korea or Japan as a partner.

This did not go down well with everyone, with some urging for more focus on public transport.
Within minutes of the news, SK Teo created a petition titled “We should not have a national car at this point in time”, earning only five signatures out of its 100-person goal within an hour.
It's actually ludicrous to talk about ANOTHER national car project.  I mentioned before that well, Dr. M has his own ideas when it comes to economics and a country.  He thinks we should build massive things like Putrajaya.  He thinks we should build national car companies.

Maybe he has changed politically, but economically, he's sounding more and more like the old Dr. M.  And it's just more evidence that he hasn't changed and investors should be afraid. 

 

Why Dr. M believes in a national car company (in my opinion)


I've always wondered why Dr. M loves national car companies.   I mentioned that Dr. M is a numbers type of person in a previous blog on the HSR.  This means, if a project has no profit, it is a no go.  His types of projects are a very calculated movement. 

What does a National car company do for the country?  I believe his goal is hopefully for a national car company to be self-sustaining, it doesn't need to be super profitable. 

If we look at it from a foreign exchange standpoint, it achieves some goals on a purely numbers basis.  The average household spends large amounts of money in a couple of categories.  One is housing, while the next largest is autos, and another one is utilities (electricity, petrol).  Only one of these categories sees a massive negative trade balance with foreign entities, autos. 

So, if a national automaker were to be moderately successful, then Dr. M would achieve his goals of a having a more balanced trade deficit, meaning less dependence on foreign entities, and thus a stronger ringgit.  It's a very calculated idea in theory, but can it work? 

I don't really agree it can, because the products of a mediocre national car company is not what people want.  People want top quality cars at the best price, not a moderate quality national car at a bad price.  I don't think many people's goals are to have another national car company.  They want things like faster travel time, better public facilities, safer environments, better education. 

Hopefully Dr. M can have a change of heart.  They want freedom to buy what they want without being overpriced.  Right now, people are paying out the nose for better foreign cars.  And at this price point, they STILL would rather pay that ridiculous price than be forced to buy the national car.  People's wallets have spoken!

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Astro considered being taken Private? Ananda Krishnan's third fail?

From the star:

 
KUALA LUMPUR: Billionaire T Ananda Krishnan (pic) is weighing the possibility of taking Astro Malaysia Holdings
 Bhd private after shares of the pay-TV operator dropped to a record low, people familiar with the matter said.
The tycoon has revived deliberations about a buyout of Kuala Lumpur-based Astro, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.
Krishnan has been speaking to potential advisers about funding options and is reaching out to some major investors to gauge their interest, the people said.
Recently, Ananda Krishnan had made headlines for its failure in the India market for the bankruptcy of Aircel.  Before that, we have another almost failure of Bumi Armada where he was looking to get out as oil prices fell back to earth.

He should just realize that perhaps when the tough gets going, he should get running.  Astro's prospects are getting bleaker with online streaming services like Netflix and streaming from android and apple boxes.

The newer generation of kids are learning to cut these big television behemoths out of the picture.  So Astro's grip on the population does get weaker with every passing year.

Will they continue to pay ridiculous prices for EPL games and the like?  Sports for now are still Astro's only saving grace. 
 

Saturday, June 2, 2018

Pakatan Harapan's Debt blunder

From Malaysia Kini:

The implementation of an RM100 monthly public transit pass would have "huge" financial implications for the federal government, said Transport Minister Anthony Loke.
BN Youth leader Khairy Jamaluddin believes that the Pakatan Harapan administration may have exaggerated the national debt situation to buy time for the implementation of its election promises.
Pakatan Harapan has been using the "National Debt is bigger than expected" as a reason not to implement some of their campaign promises. 

I tend not to agree with their logic.  Looking for a reason not to implement policies is a bit of stupidity.  Blaming others is never the right way.  They should have some degree of knowledge how big the debt is or not make so many promises they cannot implement.  It is common knowledge every country's debt is larger than what is stated on "official records."  I don't think it should be a surprise for most competent parties that they have an idea what the debt is before they come into power.

I tend to agree with Khairy that Pakatan is using this debt media blitz as a way to not implement some of their promises.

I believe Pakatan Harapan should just take their lumps and not blame others.   But nonetheless, most people already know they are a new party and will take some time to adjust to governance.  Just don't make it worse by making a show of it.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Mahathir at it again

From the Star:

The amount of money spent to build the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR) project does not justify the number of jobs it could generate, said Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
“If you are going to spend RM60bil to RM100bil so that thousands of people can work, that's not very efficient,” he said to reporters after hosting Ramadan break-of-fast event at Putrajaya International Convention Centre (PICC).
Again, the PM Mahathir doesn't seem to get it.  He looks at construction and the jobs it creates.  Instead, I would suggest to think about construction and what it does for the country.

For a backstory into the PM, lets look at his crowning glory, Putrajaya.  At that time, Malaysia was under increasing international pressure for an IMF bailout.  Backed into a corner, he instituted capital controls.  Also, many media outlets credit the construction of Putrajaya as what has brought Malaysia out of recession for the many jobs it created.  Dr. M should be pleased.

However, all these items are debateable whether this is what has saved Malaysia in the past.  But lets look at what Putrajaya does.  It's a whole bunch of buildings, pretty much in the middle of nowhere.  Outside of government hours, it's a dead city.  To me, it does nothing for Malaysia.

Now what does the HSR do for the country.  Why do we need this?  well, we don't.  Nothing is needed per say.  But what does it do? It gives an almost direct connection between the heart of KL and Singapore. 

The only other method is through flying, but unfortunately, one has to endure 1 hour of traffic minimum to the airport, two hours of waiting for the flight, expensive cab fares, landing, deplaning,  waiting for baggage, delays, etc. 

Hopefully the cost can be negotiated down, but the cost when I first heard about it was 10-20 billion ringgit.  Don't be so hasty to say no Dr. M. 

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Interesting times to be a blogger

After a hiatus off a few years where not much seemed to be happening in the Malaysian markets.  We have a new government.  Lots to talk about.

1.  Pakatan Harapan has won the government

So how Pakatan Harapan won is such an interesting topic.  Malaysia doesn't have any reliable polling methods, so I don't think it is surprising to most people in Malaysia and people that are objective that the opposition could potentially win.

However, the media and BN has painted a picture where the the opposition had little chance and rightfully so due to sneaky tactics by the national ruling party.  This goes to show, that short of martial law, even a ruling party in a democratic nation can still lose as people eventually will vote. 

2.  What does this mean for Malaysia

At first the new government didn't seem like it would do a lot at this juncture in time.  But a few weeks have went by and the stock market is growing cautious at whether the new government will be competent enough to lead Malaysia towards higher growth.

Mahathir is hit and miss sometimes when it comes to the economy.

From Bloomberg:

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said he will cancel a proposed multibillion-dollar high-speed railway link to Singapore, scrapping a signature project of his predecessor Najib Razak in what he called a move to cut costs.
The article goes on to give the reason that the country will not make financial profit from this project.  Many projects don't make a "profit" that doesn't mean they don't do things for the country. 

The MRT is definitely not profitable nor is for many countries in the world, yet it saves massive amounts of time for people and helps cities to thrive. 

HSR is a means to an end.  a successful venture with Singapore and who knows, the causeway Mahathir has been so adamant about expanding with Singapore might get accomplished. 

Another issue which Mahathir in my view has not been very tactful:

From the South China Morning Post:

Should Mahathir Mohamad’s Malaysia election win worry Chinese investors in Johor’s Forest City?
Statements seem to indicate that he doesn't seem to understand nation building as he should.  The Chinese migration has brought an economic boom to countries like Canada and Australia over the last decade.  What is Malaysia giving up for this kind of money?  some land in Iskandar Johor that no one north of Johor really cares about. 

Like it or not, the country can not do without the revenue stream China brings.  Look at the almost 1 trillion dollar in debt Malaysia has.

Mahathir and Pakatan needs to let things fall where they may and do what they were elected to do, clean up the government, modernize archaic policies such as the bumiputera NEP  and leave in place government checks and balances so another 1MDB scandal never happens again.


Monday, September 7, 2015

World wide futures trading hours

Generally the active future trading hours are hard to find, but I've condensed the active trading hours into a simple list with the length of each trading session.

Asia:

Hong Kong Index futures:  9:15 am - 12:00 PM, 1:00 PM - 4:15 pm SGT (6 hours)
Nikkei:  8:45 am - 3:15 pm (7:45 am - 2:15 pm SGT) (6.5 hours)
KOSPI:  8:00 am - 2:00 pm SGT  (6 hours)
Taiwan:  8:45 am - 1:45 pm SGT (5 hours)
Singapore:  8:30 am - 5:00 pm SGT (8.5 hours)
FKLI Malaysia:  8:45 am - 5:15 pm SGT (8.5 hours)
FCPO M'sia:  10:30 am - 12:30 pm, 3:00 pm - 6:00 pm SGT (5 hours)

European:

Ftse 100 futures:  9:00 am - 5:30 pm (3 pm - 11:30 pm SGT) (8.5 hours)
DAX Index Futures:  9:00 am - 5:30 pm  (3 pm - 11:30 pm SGT) (8.5 hours)
German Bund  Futures: 8:00 am - 6:00pm (2:00 pm - 12:00 am SGT) (10 hours)

US: (US eastern time zone)

S&P500 mini:  9:30 am - 4:15 pm (6.75 hours)
Crude oil:  9am - 2:30 PM (5.5 hours)
Gold:  8:20 am - 1:30 PM (5.2 hours)
Agricultural corn, soybean, wheat:  9:30 AM  - 1:15 pm (3.75 hours)


Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Looks like 1.5 million more workers coming to our shores

From the Malaysia Insider

The plan to bring in some 1.5 million workers from Bangladesh to Malaysia in stages over three years contradicts objectives in the 11th Malaysia Plan (11MP) to reduce dependency on low-skilled foreign labour, the country's umbrella body of trade unions said.
Malaysian Trades Union Congress (MTUC) secretary-general N. Gopal Kishnam said reliance on foreign workers would not help Malaysia achieve developed nation status by 2020 if locals were left wanting for jobs and better wages.
"I am not in agreement with the government's proposal to bring in 1.5 million (workers from Bangladesh). This is as big as the population in Kelantan. I don't see the reason why we have to do this when we already have so many illegal immigrants," he added.
"Local workers have no hope to find jobs as employers like to hire those they can pay cheaply," he told The Malaysian Insider.
"This always happens and Malaysia will not achieve developed nation status by 2020 where one of the goals is to raise workers' salaries," Gopal added.
In June, Home Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said 1.5 million workers from Bangladesh will be brought to Malaysia to meet the demands of employers from various sectors, especially those that involve "dirty, dangerous and difficult" work.
He said the government had no choice but to do so as Malaysian workers were "choosy" with jobs.
But MTUC fears that reliance on foreign labour would not help push up wages, which have been largely stagnant or seen only marginal growth for working class jobs.
Gopal added that statistics from the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) showed that more than 40% of local workers earned less than RM2,000 per month.
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/plan-for-1.5-million-bangladesh-workers-contradicts-11mp-says-groups#sthash.XHvdZ3ku.dpuf
 It looks like Malaysia's growth isn't over yet.  The ability to get low cost labor to feed the large construction projects is extremely ambitious and the only saving factor for the Najib administration.  This is a huge factor to prop up the economy.  It's probably also the only thing he can do as there is no other choice for growth.

1.5 million workers will certainly add a ton of growth to GDP and keep it trucking despite a major slowdown.

All these workers will buy cellphones to call home, use foreign remittance services, buy necessities, and take up unused housing spaces.  They will aso contribute to the revenues of the country and tax collection as they buy necessities of life through GST.

Three cheers for keeping the economy trucking!

Monday, August 10, 2015

Tenaga by far the biggest loser of the current market down turn

From the Edge:

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 10): Tenaga Nasional Bhd ( Financial Dashboard)'s (TNB) shares continued to decline for the third straight day, dipping as much as 4.6% in early trading, in line with the weak broader market.
As at 3.20pm, the stock shed 46 sen or 4.04% to RM10.94. A total of 8.01 million shares were traded. It hit an intraday low of RM10.88, emerging as one of the top decliners on Bursa Malaysia today.
Last Thursday, the stock posted its largest decline in a year, dropping 4.42% as the political ramifications around the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) saga weighed down on the stock.
TNB shares have lost 13.9% since mid-July, when the national utility announced its non-binding proposal to acquire 1MDB’s remaining power assets, raising bailout concerns.

It seems the market has more or less decided that Tenaga is in trouble.  I wonder what kind of rumors are going around for this stock.

What kind offer has it bid for 1MDB assets?

If you ask me, it is buy on the news of the asset purchase when it comes out.  Especially if the stock the assets purchased are reasonably priced.  If they bid 15 billion for the assets or below, I'd be a buyer of Tenaga.

People have to keep in mind.  Energy prices are quite low, and the country has a huge population which will keep demand robust even after a decline in output due to GST.  Excess capacity is not the problem which if it was, I would be a seller of Tenaga.


Friday, July 31, 2015

Top buy and forget dividend picks today

Summary:

1.  Safest, from the economy and government change:  IGBREIT and KLCCP
2.  Next safest from economy, but not government change:  Magnum, Berjaya Sports 
3.  Moderately safe:  Maxis, Carlsberg, BAT

                                                                             


With the top 100 largest Market cap list, what can a conservative investor buy today?    Here are shares with dividends over 4.5%

Any of the following are what I consider potential buys with a dividend better than the Fixed Deposit of 3.5-4%  A lot of banks are trying to attract capital giving very attractive rates.

But, which of these few can really stand the test of time?

ROE LFI ROE LFY Dividend yield
YTL 18.68  bil 6.7 11.3 7.79
MAGNUM 4.2  bil 14.8 10.4 7.58
BJTOTO 4.958  bil 45 55 6.55
IGBREIT 4.51  bil 7.5 8.7 6.39
YTLPOWR 11.85  bil 0.9 11 6.37
UOADEV 3.06  bil 11.28 12 6.3
MAYBANK 88.59  bil 12.56 13.57 6.06
BIMB 6.4  bil 17.4 18.5 5.67
CARLSBG 3.42  bil 56 72 5.67
SUNREIT 4.54  bil 6.18 11 5.62
MBSB 7  bil 10.5 29.5 5.3
MAXIS 50.1  bil 41.45 32.05 5.25
GASMSIA 4.48  bil 11.4 16.6 5.18
AMBANK 20.28  bil 14.7 13.9 5.16
PAVREIT 4.43  bil 6.4 13.9 5.14
BAT 19.96  bil 159 174 4.76
KLCC 12.005  bil 5.95 7.91 4.75
HAPSENG 9.46  bil 11 20 4.65

No doubt most of these companies are doing alright.  Most have ROE last year in double digits.    If you ask me, the best two shares to buy right now is likely KLCC and IGBREIT.  These two give great dividends, but their ROE is on the low side.

KLCC is the ultimate city centre shopping centre and has massive influxes of tourists every year, not at all dependent on the whims and moves of the local economy, while Midvalley is the ultimate shopping centre for Malaysians.  It is centrally located between Petaling Jaya, KL, and Cheras.  

The shopping mall is forever full and even when GST rolled around, Midvalley was just business as usual.  

I tend to doubt Pavillion REIT as a stalwart when times get bad.  It's a great shopping center, but people will prefer KLCC.  

Next out of all the shares, I tend to like Maxis and Carlsberg.  These two will likely be around as Malaysians need to make phone calls and drink beer, no matter how the economy is doing. 

As long as BN is in government, the only untouchables are likely the REITs.  All the other companies have problems from commodity cycles to banks, to property.  If it's not that, the gaming companies Magnum and BJ Toto is dependent on gaming policy.  The gaming companies are great, but every election, it's the same problem.  Banks are alright, but they are susceptible to interest rate policy and are extremely leveraged.  

Of the two shares, Maxis and Carlsberg, I believe Maxis has the greater policy risk should a government change take place.  As of now, an oligopoly exists in the telecommunication space and they are making profits and costs of calls aren't coming down as fast as one would think.  An opposition led government might look at this particular industry to liberalize.

Alcohol products are taxed extremely high already, so it is doubtful that a new government would raise taxes.  Carlsberg should be the safer bet.

The fate of number forecast operators would be hardest to predict if a new government change were to take place.  No one knows what an opposition led government would do.  But in the event the government does not change hands, they are safer than Carlsberg and Maxis, in that the companies are money churners and carry very little inventory and overhead risk.

To recap: 

1.  Safest, from the economic cycles and government change:  IGBREIT and KLCCP
2.  Next safest from the economic cycles, but not government change:  Magnum, Berjaya Sports 
3.  Moderately safe:  Maxis, Carlsberg, BAT




Thursday, July 30, 2015

Top 100 Malaysian market cap companies with dividends and ROE

I did a post regarding the top market cap companies in Malaysia some time ago.  Now, I will add on to that huge list with some financial statistics.  I pulled most of the information off Reuters.  Take note that I have not made the list current, so Market cap values are all wrong.

I have added ROE and dividends to the list.  We all want to know whether a company pays dividends (hopefully above the current FD rate) and/or has the profits to support those dividends in a higher trajectory.

ROE is not an infallible financial ratio.  It moves a lot with company acquisitions and assets sales at a profit.  It's just a tool to help you zoom in on potential suitors.  Also debt plays a huge role in ROE calculation and is much better measurement of strength of a company when it has few debts.

LFI is the last financial report ROE and ROE LFY is the last financial year.


I present the Top 100 Malaysian market cap companies with dividends and ROE list:


ROE LFI ROE LFY Dividend yield
MAYBANK 88.59  bil 12.56 13.57 6.06
TENAGA 73.7  bil 18.7 16.51 2.37
PBBANK 72  bil 16.75 18.65 2.88
AXIATA 60.7  bil 11.04 11.64 3.49
SIME 57  bil 5.46 11.18 4.23
CIMB 51.46  bil 6.14 9.19 2.61
MAXIS 50.1  bil 41.45 32.05 5.25
PCHEM 48  bil 10.66 11.09 2.51
DIGI 45.8  bil 310 301 4.75
PETGAS 43.3  bil 16.99 17.72 2.27
IHH 40.6  bil 3.5 4 0.5
GENTING 35.2  bil 7.39 4.68 0.49
IOICORP 30.669  bil -14.35 12.64 3.92
MISC 30.6  bil 6.8 8.4 1.32
HLBANK 26.9  bil 13.48 15.25 3.04
TM 25.45  bil 6.76 11.31 3.5
GENM 25  bil 8.65 7.48 1.54
KLK 23.4  bil 10.7 12.96 2.55
RHBCAP 22.4  bil 9.98 11.47 0.83
SKPETRO 21.2  bil 8.68 12.92 0.85
AMBANK 20.28  bil 14.7 13.9 5.16
BAT 19.96  bil 159 174 4.76
PETDAG 19.4  bil 17.38 10.51 1.84
YTL 18.68  bil 6.7 11.3 7.79

HLFG 18.57  bil 11.8 15.8 2.5
PPB 17  bil 5.4 5.65 1.52
ASTRO 16.9  bil 97 79 3.9
NESTLE 15.9  bil 86 69 3.26
UMW 13.62  bil 10 10 4.12
FGV 12.7  bil 0.3 5.42 6
KLCC 12.005  bil 5.95 7.91 4.75
YTLPOWR 11.85  bil 0.9 11 6.37
GAMUDA 11.62  bil 10.6 13.9 2.5
WPRTS 10.2  bil 28 30 2.81
AIRPORT 10.18  bil 0.89 12 0.92
IJM 9.78  bil 5.1 6.34 2.23
ARMADA 9.5  bil 4.2 3.96 1.52
HAPSENG 9.46  bil 11 20 4.65
SPSETIA 8.6  bil 13.4 6.79 3.12
LAFMSIA 8.488  bil 9.4 8 3.59
UEMS 8.485  bil 3.35 7.77 3
IOIPG 8.29  bil 3.5 8 0
BKAWAN 7.969  bil 9.8 11 3.31
GENP 7.8  bil 5.39 10.3 0.72
MMCCORP 7.7  bil 2.27 6.7 1.56
AFG 7.4  bil 8.48 12.26 3.63
UMWOG 7.37  bil 10 10 4.1
MBSB 7  bil 10.5 29.5 5.3
AIRASIA 6.67  bil 12.9 1.7 2.21

BIMB 6.4  bil 17.4 18.5 5.67
AFFIN 6.35  bil 1.5 8.45 5.84
SUNWAY 5.925  bil 9.7 13.03 3.14
F&N 5.82  bil 15.9 15.5 3.07
HARTA 5.49  bil 17.8 18.97 1.5
UTDPLT 5.41  bil 11.38 12.88 1.49
IJMLAND 5.3  bil 0
BSTEAD 5.24  bil 0 7.35 5.85
AEON 5.07  bil 1.6 3.6 1.38
BJTOTO 4.958  bil 45 55 6.55
ORIENT 4.59  bil 4.3 6.7 1.66
SUNREIT 4.54  bil 6.18 11 5.62
KULIM 4.53  bil 3.7 1.2 3.85
IGBREIT 4.51  bil 7.5 8.7 6.39
GASMSIA 4.48  bil 11.4 16.6 5.18
PAVREIT 4.43  bil 6.4 13.9 5.14
CMSB 4.37  bil 12.5 12.7 1.46
MAS 4.34  bil
DRBHICOM 4.31  bil 4.7 4 4.26
BURSA 4.24  bil 26 25 4.27
MAGNUM 4.2  bil 14.8 10.4 7.58
QL 4.17  bil 16.6 14.7 1.03
BJLAND 4.15  bil -32 -7 1.43
KPJ 4.029  bil 10.4 12.2 1.8
IGB 3.91  bil 6.1 5 3.57

LPI 3.89  bil 20.9 17.3 4.02
MHB 3.84  bil 5.45 4.96 0
GAB 3.7  bil 42.4 54.8 4.5
MAHSING 3.48  bil 13.6 16 4.33
MSM 3.44  bil 14.39 13.5 4.78
CARLSBG 3.42  bil 56 72 5.67
HLCAP 3.4  bil 10.9 22 1.47
BIPORT 3.2  bil 12.6 13 3.53
TOPGLOV 3.1  bil 19.8 13.2 2.23
TSH 3.1  bil 2.1 11 1.11
SHANG 3.09  bil 10.6 8 1.9
UOADEV 3.06  bil 11.28 12 6.3
E&O 2.989  bil 26 9 1.52
DLADY 2.951  bil 41 63 2.14
KOSSAN 2.92  bil 21.9 19 1.07
YINSON 2.89  bil 2.89 24 0.49
TCHONG 2.87  bil 3.82 3.87 2.17
TIMECOM 2.819  bil 9.5 8 0.82
PARKSON 2.8  bil 0.4 5.2 0
IJMPLNT 2.757  bil 2.5 6 1.04
MRCB 2.69  bil 44.4 7.4 2.29
POS 2.685  bil 7.1 11.78 3.39
DAYANG 2.657  bil 14.2 22 3.41


Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Najib plan might work, but not without costs

From the Malaysian Insider:

The PAS deputy president, in a statement today pointed out that Najib was following the tactics of former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad closely when he boldly removed his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
Tuan Ibrahim, who also called the new line-up a pro-1MDB Cabinet, warned Najib that the scenario now was different than in Dr Mahathir's time due to the existence of online social media.
He said that during Dr Mahathir’s era, there were also various financial scandals such as the RM30 billion loss in foreign exchange trading in 1992, Perwaja Steel and Malaysia Airlines (MAS), but managed to stay in power for 22 years.
“Let us not fall for drama put together to divert our attention from 1MDB. The new Cabinet is a pro-1MDB Cabinet. Whatever it is, PAS will continue to fight Umno and its tyranny against the people,” he said.
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/najibs-political-survival-reason-for-muhyiddin-sacking-says-pas-deputy-pres#sthash.kQa5Xt0P.dpuf
 Najib seems to have learnt well from Ex-PM Mahathir in terms of consolidating power, but Mahathir can follow through with his consolidation on power.  When he consolidated, he enacted bold monetary reforms which stemmed capital outflows.  Mahathir kept GDP growth rate at a blistering pace.

Najib, I doubt has this tenacity.  In the next 2-3 years what will he do to change public perception?  I'm not sure it is possible.  He knows Dr. M's tactics well, but his personality does not jive with the tactics.  Mahathir is electrifying when it comes to action, Najib is not.

However, Najib will probably stay in power unless something drastic happens like 1 million people taking to the streets.  He has delayed elections, both UMNO and the General Elections, and his cabinet actions may be enough to delay or cover up investigations into scandals uncovered by the press.

His tactics might work for now, but people will remember.  No one can forget GST especially.  He can survive, but so far people haven't seen he is capable.  The way Najib conducts himself, he must be waiting for a magical fairy to appear and save Malaysia.

What are the costs?  Lost time for BN to get itself back on the right track.  The next general election odds for BN failing has gone up.







Tuesday, July 28, 2015

I love the Edge newspaper but....

Unfortunately, the print edition of the Edge is no longer available due to the government putting a ban on the publication.  I, as a user is forced to use the website which has a lot of information, but just isn't for me.

The website is what I would call a disaster.  I'll outline the major problems with the site:

1.  Too cluttered with information.  I don't know what is important, what is not, what is international news, what is Malaysian news.  Some news has to do with commodities.  Some are unrelated.  Even the star business section does a better job of delivering relevant news items to the reader.  It feels like a site that just spams articles out.

2.  It's best part "In our Print Edition", near the bottom of the home page is updated too infrequently.  I actually wish this part was the main section, but alas, this is just a section that gets stepped on by the spam of unending, irrelevant news at the main section.  It gets updated by like 1-2 articles a day.  They should put more important news here.



3.  The news in the Market and corporate is another disaster.  These sections have all sorts of news.  some if it is useful, some aren't.  Some broker reports should be in a separate section as it isn't market or corporate news.  These two sections are just awful.  If it is an important broker report, please put it in an "important news section"

You could probably cut a lot of stuff out of the front of the website like personal wealth, opinion, news from our partners.  Honestly, I feel the site spams too much information.  I want relevant information like what was printed in the edge daily.

I find it hard to believe that this crappy model of the website could exist for so long.  It takes something like a ban of its printed publications to put the website in the spot light.  




Monday, July 27, 2015

Bersih rally coming soon?

From the Malay Mail:


KUALA LUMPUR, July 6 — Bersih 2.0 will take to the streets and organise its fourth mass rally if Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak does not adequately address the allegations of embezzlement against him in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), group chairman Maria Chin Abdullah said today.
The activist added that Najib must also immediately take a leave of absence from all his government positions to allow investigators to trace the trail of billions of ringgit allegedly wired from 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) into the prime minister’s personal bank accounts.
“Najib must reveal to the public the details of his bank accounts and explain whether the AmBank accounts under his name exist. If they do, then show the transaction details of that day,” news portal the Malaysian Insider quoted Maria as saying today.
- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/bersih-4.0-rally-if-no-answers-on-pms-alleged-embezzlement-polls-watchdog-w#sthash.0fwuhgc9.dpuf
The latest Anti GST rally called by Bersih only rallied around 10,000 Malaysians.  It can be considered a failure as Bersih 2.0 brought in 100,000 people on the streets.

 It's roughly ten days to go until the next Bersih rally will be likely called.  With nothing of significance really being done regarding answering the 1MDB allegations, time is running out for the government.  GST is a whole different animal compared to the 1MDB allegations.  I expect that the turnout will be significantly larger.

Bersih is so far the only major event so far that the government is extremely scared of and will likely heed notice.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Tenaga to bid for all the power assets of 1MDB

From the Edge:

Maintain add with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM15.27: TNB and several local and foreign companies have separately submitted non-binding offers to acquire 1Malaysia Development Bhd’s (1MDB) power assets.
Crucial information, such as the proposed acquisition price and earnings impact, was not disclosed. However, TNB believes that 1MDB’s assets are strong fits for its growth strategy, and stressed that any transaction needs to be value accretive. 
We believe the proposed acquisition, if it proceeds, will likely be neutral to slightly negative to TNB’s valuation in the near term. The acquisition could be negative because 1MDB acquired its power assets for RM18 billion (includes RM6 billion inherited debt) but has since written down about RM1.18 billion of acquisition-related goodwill. 
The transaction could be perceived negatively if TNB’s bidding price implies an enterprise value of more than RM16.82 billion. We think it will have a neutral impact if TNB pays a fair price for the assets. 
 Here is what I don't exactly like about the plan.  Call me skeptical but why is 1MDB insistent that it has many suitors for the power assets, yet it most probably would choose Tenaga.  It looks like a scene from a bad drama.

In the interest of investors and the general public, it would be good for 1MDB not to sell these assets to Tenaga, especially at this price.  No one knows how much the other bidders are paying or if these bidders are fake bidders, knowing the end game will be to sell to Tenaga.  It is stated in the press that many of these power assets were bought at high prices compared to what they would be worth on the open market.

There is a reason why 1MDB cannot IPO these assets.  Since the reasons are not divulged, one possible reason is that the IPO price is way below what the assets are worth on the balance sheet.  The loss would be too much for 1MDB to bear politically and much easier to dump it on Tenaga as they would carry it as a asset on their balance sheet.  If there is a write down, it won't come till long after.

Think twice Tenaga.  Make a smart bid buy taking into account how much they were worth when 1MDB purchased the assets, not how much they bought the assets for.




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