Saturday, February 21, 2009

Green Packet's Wimax folly?

I'm looking at this article.

Of course, WiMax is turning out to be anything but cheap. Consider Clearwire's challenge in Portland. WiMax works best in flat landscapes where a single communications tower can beam a signal for miles.

To deliver service in Portland, with its hills and tree-lined streets, Clearwire had to outfit 300 transmission towers at about $150,000 each, bringing the price tag to about $45 million

If what the article says is true, rolling out WiMax in places such as KL could be very costly, much more than originally thought.

KL compared to Portland is about 2/3 the size, so about 200 towers is probably needed to cover the entire city at a minimum. KL is actually much more mountainous compared to Portland and would probably need more towers.

A report by InsiderAsia analyst quoted Green Packet's investment in WiMax towers for 2008 at RM 171 million with 181 sites running, which would translate into a cost of around 1 million per tower or about USD250,000 per tower.

Green Packet plans to roll out 600 towers nation wide. That can barely cover 3 cities the size of KL. I don't see how they can do nationwide coverage with only 600 towers.

Furthermore, in this The Edge Daily article, they estimate RM 80 million in expenditure to cover the whole of Klang Valley. It roughly works out to be about 80 towers at 1 million per tower. I don't see how 80 towers can cover the entire Klang valley if it won't even cover half of KL.

It looks like someone extremely underestimated the number of towers needed to implement Wimax nationwide.

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