SP Setia Technical Analysis from the begining

SP Setia is probably one of Malaysia's most loved property counters.  I'm going to try and attempt to do some technical analysis on this beast.  It's also one of those counters just when you think it is down and out, it just comes back rip roaring higher.

SP Setia is a company known for innovating in the property market.  Their developments are known for quality and even creation of a lifestyle.  Perhaps their most well known developments are in Shah Alam where they have a 2,500 acre development that has won rave reviews.

The national government investment arm, PNB has wanted to take SP Setia global with a redevelopment of the Londone Battersea Power Station.  It would make sense as living in UK's neighborhoods resembles something of a mish mash of houses put together.  SP setia community development could take London property to another level.

The share price isn't for the faint of heart.  Consolidations can last 3-4 years which tends to shake out the most steely focused investor.

1.  One of the pivotal periods in SP Setia's history was in 2002.  When the high broke above the red rectangle, it signaled a change of sentiment from the usual pump and dump stock plaguing so many counters in Malaysia.  About one year later, after a pullback, the stock jumped.   Investors could have goten in around 80-90 sen a share, above the stop out point at the low in 2001.

Asking investors to wait one year while the stock drops 40 percent is tough to swallow, especially form RM 1.30 to 80 sen a share, but those shareholders would have been rewarded with a double.  But with the double could have come a quadruple with a long consolidation period frrom 2004 to 2007.  Asking investors to wait 3 years while the share goes nowhere is a tough thing to do.  That is why this stock isn't exactly for the faint of heart.

2.  The next pivotal point is in 2010.  A break above RM 3.3 a share signals more bullishness.  But where is the downside?  Likely near RM 1.5 a share.  Investors need to wait for consolidation for a longer period in time due to the huge range of movement in prices.

It's five years since the break hgiher into RM 3.30 a share, but time has been long and a three to four year pullback seems to be the norm, but the risk is of course the stock were ot trade much lower to RM 1.5 a share.

For me, the risk is too much to bear, But I'd be a long around RM 2.10 a share.  But, for most money managers, this stock is just rough as their performance metrics are on a yearly basis.

I think the stock will go higher in the next 5 years, but in between then,who knows what will happen.  I'm bullish, but not willing to initiate a long at these levels nor able to stomach the long gestation periods the pullbacks always seem to bring.