Monday, June 28, 2010

China floating is more about the Euro than bowing down to US pressure

From the WSJ:

A Chinese central bank adviser gave an upbeat assessment on the euro's long-term outlook and said global financial markets may have overreacted to the European sovereign-debt crisis.

Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the People's Bank of China, also told a financial forum on Friday that a major appreciation of the yuan is "impossible" because China's international payments are relatively balanced.

He repeated the official stance that the yuan float will be in two directions.

His views may not necessarily reflect the central bank's thinking, though he is at a position that his view can be heard by decision makers.

The comments came after the yuan rose to a modern-era high against the U.S. dollar on the eve of the Toronto summit of the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations. Many analysts said the yuan would return to gradual gains in the week ahead, as Beijing won't be willing to see sharp rises in the yuan hurting local exporters.

A week ago, China removed its peg to the U.S. dollar, in place for nearly two years, returning the currency to a managed-float system that references the yuan to a basket of currencies that includes the euro. China's officials have said the move will help ease the pressure on the yuan to appreciate against the euro amid the euro-zone debt crisis.
China does what it wants for their own sake and doesn't really care about international pressure. They see the potential for the Euro weakening against the US dollar to threaten their exports. If they remained pegged to the US dollar, they lack tools to combat the Euro decline!

China moved to a float why? in order to have the flexibility to manage their currency against the Euro, NOT because the US wants to brand them a currency manipulator. Perhaps the Euro might rise in this case. I believe currency traders have caught on this idea. Euro shorts better be careful!


China's peg was released on the weekend, Wednesday Euro rallies while stock markets fall.

This is shaping out to be a battle royale! China and US versus the EU. Is China taking on more than it can chew in managing its currency against both US and Europe?

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