Monday, April 13, 2015

Why the KLCI doesn't seem to react to economic numbers

One of the most useful economic aggregators on the internet is Trading Economics.  I've linked the  Malaysia front page.



The data is scaled down for size, but click on the pictures to enlarge the information.

I've always wondered why Malaysia markets don't really react to the economic information presented by the Department of Statistics.  After examining many of the indicators in aggregate, I have a pretty good idea why.

Many of the indicators are slow to come out and just plain lagging.  The information that is fast are things like currency, government debt, banking, and external trade.  This stuff is super fast.  I imagine the forex markets are priced quite properly.  But most of this does not really have a strong effect on the domestic market.

When it comes to GDP, job growth, or retail sales.  These numbers come in quarterly. In the US, retail sales and job growth come out monthly and provide data about the stock market .  Malaysia is behind the curve when it comes to reporting relevant data about the share market. Unemployment rate is actually updates frequently, but by itself doesn't tell much about job growth.

So there you have it, in order to really know the undercurrents of the Malaysian share market in REAL time, one would have to use some of the monthly data that are relevant to the share market and try and piece together something useful.  It's not easy.


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