Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Market still a little to bullish for my liking

From the Edge:


 For me, this article points towards earnings recovery in 2016.  But unfortunately 2016 isn't now.  And now isn't good.  

Why talk about 2016 earnings when a ton of 2015 still remains.  It's just too much happiness about whether something will reverse in 2016.  When Malaysia instituted a 5 percent tax in palm oil exports.  the end consumers weren't too happy about paying 5 percent more.  so actually who ate the 5 percent tax?  It's the palm oil producers.  In Europe, the tax did absolutely nothing to the palm oil price traded there.

To put two and two together.  who is going to eat the 6 percent gst tax?   consumers are unlikely as everything costs 6 percent more now, but they aren't likely to spend unless they get a similar income increase.  So, we are left with corporate entities.  Yes they are the ones that will get hurt the most from GST.

Furthermore if it will take oil prices, the ringgit and construction spending to boost up the market, I'm guessing some of those won't pan out.  Simply because the more variables that are introduced, the more likelihood of all the events working out gets increasingly smaller.  I'd err on the side of caution.


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