Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Dow Crash of 10%

While it is interesting how the media try to spin 10% drop in the DOW on Friday as an error or mistake, the truth is that it doesn't take much for the market to do that. The 1987 crash didn't really have many events causing the 20% drop.

The latest reason seems to be a huge amount of options were bought causing a major bank to sell a lot of stock when they wrote the option. This is one of the more likely reasons.

Another possible reason is the selling of futures which equates to the counter party hedging their futures position with stock. The counter party needs only put up some margin, while the seller buys the stock to hedge. A 20% margin would equate to 5 times the margin amount of selling power. This is another way to create some massive selling power.

I mentioned earlier that the buying of futures could cause a massive rally. I also mentioned what could happen if the futures weren't rolled over, massive selling power. Options buying and selling have the same dynamic. Writers buy or sell the underlying position to hedge against the buyers.

I would think the real reason behind the crash would probably be a dynamic of either futures or options. All this talk about high frequency trading, mistaken orders, failed circuit breakers probably are not the root cause despite what is mentioned in the media.

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