World wide futures trading hours

Generally the active future trading hours are hard to find, but I've condensed the active trading hours into a simple list with the length of each trading session.

Asia:

Hong Kong Index futures:  9:15 am - 12:00 PM, 1:00 PM - 4:15 pm SGT (6 hours)
Nikkei:  8:45 am - 3:15 pm (7:45 am - 2:15 pm SGT) (6.5 hours)
KOSPI:  8:00 am - 2:00 pm SGT  (6 hours)
Taiwan:  8:45 am - 1:45 pm SGT (5 hours)
Singapore:  8:30 am - 5:00 pm SGT (8.5 hours)
FKLI Malaysia:  8:45 am - 5:15 pm SGT (8.5 hours)
FCPO M'sia:  10:30 am - 12:30 pm, 3:00 pm - 6:00 pm SGT (5 hours)

European:

Ftse 100 futures:  9:00 am - 5:30 pm (3 pm - 11:30 pm SGT) (8.5 hours)
DAX Index Futures:  9:00 am - 5:30 pm  (3 pm - 11:30 pm SGT) (8.5 hours)
German Bund  Futures: 8:00 am - 6:00pm (2:00 pm - 12:00 am SGT) (10 hours)

US: (US eastern time zone)

S&P500 mini:  9:30 am - 4:15 pm (6.75 hours)
Crude oil:  9am - 2:30 PM (5.5 hours)
Gold:  8:20 am - 1:30 PM (5.2 hours)
Agricultural corn, soybean, wheat:  9:30 AM  - 1:15 pm (3.75 hours)

Looks like 1.5 million more workers coming to our shores

From the Malaysia Insider

The plan to bring in some 1.5 million workers from Bangladesh to Malaysia in stages over three years contradicts objectives in the 11th Malaysia Plan (11MP) to reduce dependency on low-skilled foreign labour, the country's umbrella body of trade unions said.

Malaysian Trades Union Congress (MTUC) secretary-general N. Gopal Kishnam said reliance on foreign workers would not help Malaysia achieve developed nation status by 2020 if locals were left wanting for jobs and better wages.

"I am not in agreement with the government's proposal to bring in 1.5 million (workers from Bangladesh). This is as big as the population in Kelantan. I don't see the reason why we have to do this when we already have so many illegal immigrants," he added.

"Local workers have no hope to find jobs as employers like to hire those they can pay cheaply," he told The Malaysian Insider.

"This always happens and Malaysia will not achieve developed nation status by 2020 where one of the goals is to raise workers' salaries," Gopal added.

In June, Home Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said 1.5 million workers from Bangladesh will be brought to Malaysia to meet the demands of employers from various sectors, especially those that involve "dirty, dangerous and difficult" work.

He said the government had no choice but to do so as Malaysian workers were "choosy" with jobs.

But MTUC fears that reliance on foreign labour would not help push up wages, which have been largely stagnant or seen only marginal growth for working class jobs.

Gopal added that statistics from the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) showed that more than 40% of local workers earned less than RM2,000 per month.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/plan-for-1.5-million-bangladesh-workers-contradicts-11mp-says-groups#sthash.XHvdZ3ku.dpuf

 It looks like Malaysia's growth isn't over yet.  The ability to get low cost labor to feed the large construction projects is extremely ambitious and the only saving factor for the Najib administration.  This is a huge factor to prop up the economy.  It's probably also the only thing he can do as there is no other choice for growth.

1.5 million workers will certainly add a ton of growth to GDP and keep it trucking despite a major slowdown.

All these workers will buy cellphones to call home, use foreign remittance services, buy necessities, and take up unused housing spaces.  They will aso contribute to the revenues of the country and tax collection as they buy necessities of life through GST.

Three cheers for keeping the economy trucking!

Tenaga by far the biggest loser of the current market down turn

From the Edge:

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 10): Tenaga Nasional Bhd ( Financial Dashboard)'s (TNB) shares continued to decline for the third straight day, dipping as much as 4.6% in early trading, in line with the weak broader market.

As at 3.20pm, the stock shed 46 sen or 4.04% to RM10.94. A total of 8.01 million shares were traded. It hit an intraday low of RM10.88, emerging as one of the top decliners on Bursa Malaysia today.

Last Thursday, the stock posted its largest decline in a year, dropping 4.42% as the political ramifications around the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) saga weighed down on the stock.

TNB shares have lost 13.9% since mid-July, when the national utility announced its non-binding proposal to acquire 1MDB’s remaining power assets, raising bailout concerns.

It seems the market has more or less decided that Tenaga is in trouble.  I wonder what kind of rumors are going around for this stock.

What kind offer has it bid for 1MDB assets?

If you ask me, it is buy on the news of the asset purchase when it comes out.  Especially if the stock the assets purchased are reasonably priced.  If they bid 15 billion for the assets or below, I'd be a buyer of Tenaga.

People have to keep in mind.  Energy prices are quite low, and the country has a huge population which will keep demand robust even after a decline in output due to GST.  Excess capacity is not the problem which if it was, I would be a seller of Tenaga.

Top buy and forget dividend picks today

Summary:

1.  Safest, from the economy and government change:  IGBREIT and KLCCP

2.  Next safest from economy, but not government change:  Magnum, Berjaya Sports 

3.  Moderately safe:  Maxis, Carlsberg, BAT

                                                                             


With the top 100 largest Market cap list, what can a conservative investor buy today?    Here are shares with dividends over 4.5%

Any of the following are what I consider potential buys with a dividend better than the Fixed Deposit of 3.5-4%  A lot of banks are trying to attract capital giving very attractive rates.

But, which of these few can really stand the test of time?

			ROE LFI	ROE LFY	Dividend yield
YTL	18.68	bil	6.7	11.3	7.79
MAGNUM	4.2	bil	14.8	10.4	7.58
BJTOTO	4.958	bil	45	55	6.55
IGBREIT	4.51	bil	7.5	8.7	6.39
YTLPOWR	11.85	bil	0.9	11	6.37
UOADEV	3.06	bil	11.28	12	6.3
MAYBANK	88.59	bil	12.56	13.57	6.06
BIMB	6.4	bil	17.4	18.5	5.67
CARLSBG	3.42	bil	56	72	5.67
SUNREIT	4.54	bil	6.18	11	5.62
MBSB	7	bil	10.5	29.5	5.3
MAXIS	50.1	bil	41.45	32.05	5.25
GASMSIA	4.48	bil	11.4	16.6	5.18
AMBANK	20.28	bil	14.7	13.9	5.16
PAVREIT	4.43	bil	6.4	13.9	5.14
BAT	19.96	bil	159	174	4.76
KLCC	12.005	bil	5.95	7.91	4.75
HAPSENG	9.46	bil	11	20	4.65

No doubt most of these companies are doing alright.  Most have ROE last year in double digits.    If you ask me, the best two shares to buy right now is likely KLCC and IGBREIT.  These two give great dividends, but their ROE is on the low side.

KLCC is the ultimate city centre shopping centre and has massive influxes of tourists every year, not at all dependent on the whims and moves of the local economy, while Midvalley is the ultimate shopping centre for Malaysians.  It is centrally located between Petaling Jaya, KL, and Cheras.  

The shopping mall is forever full and even when GST rolled around, Midvalley was just business as usual.  

I tend to doubt Pavillion REIT as a stalwart when times get bad.  It's a great shopping center, but people will prefer KLCC.  

Next out of all the shares, I tend to like Maxis and Carlsberg.  These two will likely be around as Malaysians need to make phone calls and drink beer, no matter how the economy is doing. 

As long as BN is in government, the only untouchables are likely the REITs.  All the other companies have problems from commodity cycles to banks, to property.  If it's not that, the gaming companies Magnum and BJ Toto is dependent on gaming policy.  The gaming companies are great, but every election, it's the same problem.  Banks are alright, but they are susceptible to interest rate policy and are extremely leveraged.  

Of the two shares, Maxis and Carlsberg, I believe Maxis has the greater policy risk should a government change take place.  As of now, an oligopoly exists in the telecommunication space and they are making profits and costs of calls aren't coming down as fast as one would think.  An opposition led government might look at this particular industry to liberalize.

Alcohol products are taxed extremely high already, so it is doubtful that a new government would raise taxes.  Carlsberg should be the safer bet.

The fate of number forecast operators would be hardest to predict if a new government change were to take place.  No one knows what an opposition led government would do.  But in the event the government does not change hands, they are safer than Carlsberg and Maxis, in that the companies are money churners and carry very little inventory and overhead risk.

To recap: 

1.  Safest, from the economic cycles and government change:  IGBREIT and KLCCP

2.  Next safest from the economic cycles, but not government change:  Magnum, Berjaya Sports 

3.  Moderately safe:  Maxis, Carlsberg, BAT

Top 100 Malaysian market cap companies with dividends and ROE

I did a post regarding the top market cap companies in Malaysia some time ago.  Now, I will add on to that huge list with some financial statistics.  I pulled most of the information off Reuters.  Take note that I have not made the list current, so Market cap values are all wrong.

I have added ROE and dividends to the list.  We all want to know whether a company pays dividends (hopefully above the current FD rate) and/or has the profits to support those dividends in a higher trajectory.

ROE is not an infallible financial ratio.  It moves a lot with company acquisitions and assets sales at a profit.  It's just a tool to help you zoom in on potential suitors.  Also debt plays a huge role in ROE calculation and is much better measurement of strength of a company when it has few debts.

LFI is the last financial report ROE and ROE LFY is the last financial year.

I present the Top 100 Malaysian market cap companies with dividends and ROE list:

			ROE LFI	ROE LFY	Dividend yield
MAYBANK	88.59	bil	12.56	13.57	6.06
TENAGA	73.7	bil	18.7	16.51	2.37
PBBANK	72	bil	16.75	18.65	2.88
AXIATA	60.7	bil	11.04	11.64	3.49
SIME	57	bil	5.46	11.18	4.23
CIMB	51.46	bil	6.14	9.19	2.61
MAXIS	50.1	bil	41.45	32.05	5.25
PCHEM	48	bil	10.66	11.09	2.51
DIGI	45.8	bil	310	301	4.75
PETGAS	43.3	bil	16.99	17.72	2.27
IHH	40.6	bil	3.5	4	0.5
GENTING	35.2	bil	7.39	4.68	0.49
IOICORP	30.669	bil	-14.35	12.64	3.92
MISC	30.6	bil	6.8	8.4	1.32
HLBANK	26.9	bil	13.48	15.25	3.04
TM	25.45	bil	6.76	11.31	3.5
GENM	25	bil	8.65	7.48	1.54
KLK	23.4	bil	10.7	12.96	2.55
RHBCAP	22.4	bil	9.98	11.47	0.83
SKPETRO	21.2	bil	8.68	12.92	0.85
AMBANK	20.28	bil	14.7	13.9	5.16
BAT	19.96	bil	159	174	4.76
PETDAG	19.4	bil	17.38	10.51	1.84
YTL	18.68	bil	6.7	11.3	7.79

HLFG	18.57	bil	11.8	15.8	2.5
PPB	17	bil	5.4	5.65	1.52
ASTRO	16.9	bil	97	79	3.9
NESTLE	15.9	bil	86	69	3.26
UMW	13.62	bil	10	10	4.12
FGV	12.7	bil	0.3	5.42	6
KLCC	12.005	bil	5.95	7.91	4.75
YTLPOWR	11.85	bil	0.9	11	6.37
GAMUDA	11.62	bil	10.6	13.9	2.5
WPRTS	10.2	bil	28	30	2.81
AIRPORT	10.18	bil	0.89	12	0.92
IJM	9.78	bil	5.1	6.34	2.23
ARMADA	9.5	bil	4.2	3.96	1.52
HAPSENG	9.46	bil	11	20	4.65
SPSETIA	8.6	bil	13.4	6.79	3.12
LAFMSIA	8.488	bil	9.4	8	3.59
UEMS	8.485	bil	3.35	7.77	3
IOIPG	8.29	bil	3.5	8	0
BKAWAN	7.969	bil	9.8	11	3.31
GENP	7.8	bil	5.39	10.3	0.72
MMCCORP	7.7	bil	2.27	6.7	1.56
AFG	7.4	bil	8.48	12.26	3.63
UMWOG	7.37	bil	10	10	4.1
MBSB	7	bil	10.5	29.5	5.3
AIRASIA	6.67	bil	12.9	1.7	2.21

BIMB	6.4	bil	17.4	18.5	5.67
AFFIN	6.35	bil	1.5	8.45	5.84
SUNWAY	5.925	bil	9.7	13.03	3.14
F&N	5.82	bil	15.9	15.5	3.07
HARTA	5.49	bil	17.8	18.97	1.5
UTDPLT	5.41	bil	11.38	12.88	1.49
IJMLAND	5.3	bil	0
BSTEAD	5.24	bil	0	7.35	5.85
AEON	5.07	bil	1.6	3.6	1.38
BJTOTO	4.958	bil	45	55	6.55
ORIENT	4.59	bil	4.3	6.7	1.66
SUNREIT	4.54	bil	6.18	11	5.62
KULIM	4.53	bil	3.7	1.2	3.85
IGBREIT	4.51	bil	7.5	8.7	6.39
GASMSIA	4.48	bil	11.4	16.6	5.18
PAVREIT	4.43	bil	6.4	13.9	5.14
CMSB	4.37	bil	12.5	12.7	1.46
MAS	4.34	bil
DRBHICOM	4.31	bil	4.7	4	4.26
BURSA	4.24	bil	26	25	4.27
MAGNUM	4.2	bil	14.8	10.4	7.58
QL	4.17	bil	16.6	14.7	1.03
BJLAND	4.15	bil	-32	-7	1.43
KPJ	4.029	bil	10.4	12.2	1.8
IGB	3.91	bil	6.1	5	3.57

LPI	3.89	bil	20.9	17.3	4.02
MHB	3.84	bil	5.45	4.96	0
GAB	3.7	bil	42.4	54.8	4.5
MAHSING	3.48	bil	13.6	16	4.33
MSM	3.44	bil	14.39	13.5	4.78
CARLSBG	3.42	bil	56	72	5.67
HLCAP	3.4	bil	10.9	22	1.47
BIPORT	3.2	bil	12.6	13	3.53
TOPGLOV	3.1	bil	19.8	13.2	2.23
TSH	3.1	bil	2.1	11	1.11
SHANG	3.09	bil	10.6	8	1.9
UOADEV	3.06	bil	11.28	12	6.3
E&O	2.989	bil	26	9	1.52
DLADY	2.951	bil	41	63	2.14
KOSSAN	2.92	bil	21.9	19	1.07
YINSON	2.89	bil	2.89	24	0.49
TCHONG	2.87	bil	3.82	3.87	2.17
TIMECOM	2.819	bil	9.5	8	0.82
PARKSON	2.8	bil	0.4	5.2	0
IJMPLNT	2.757	bil	2.5	6	1.04
MRCB	2.69	bil	44.4	7.4	2.29
POS	2.685	bil	7.1	11.78	3.39
DAYANG	2.657	bil	14.2	22	3.41

Najib plan might work, but not without costs

From the Malaysian Insider:

The PAS deputy president, in a statement today pointed out that Najib was following the tactics of former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad closely when he boldly removed his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Tuan Ibrahim, who also called the new line-up a pro-1MDB Cabinet, warned Najib that the scenario now was different than in Dr Mahathir's time due to the existence of online social media.

Dr Mahathir, Malaysia’s longest serving prime minister, replaced his deputy three times with Tun Musa Hitam resigning in 1986, Tun Ghafar Baba in 1993 and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who was sacked in 1998.

He said that during Dr Mahathir’s era, there were also various financial scandals such as the RM30 billion loss in foreign exchange trading in 1992, Perwaja Steel and Malaysia Airlines (MAS), but managed to stay in power for 22 years.

“Let us not fall for drama put together to divert our attention from 1MDB. The new Cabinet is a pro-1MDB Cabinet. Whatever it is, PAS will continue to fight Umno and its tyranny against the people,” he said.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/najibs-political-survival-reason-for-muhyiddin-sacking-says-pas-deputy-pres#sthash.kQa5Xt0P.dpuf

 Najib seems to have learnt well from Ex-PM Mahathir in terms of consolidating power, but Mahathir can follow through with his consolidation on power.  When he consolidated, he enacted bold monetary reforms which stemmed capital outflows.  Mahathir kept GDP growth rate at a blistering pace.

Najib, I doubt has this tenacity.  In the next 2-3 years what will he do to change public perception?  I'm not sure it is possible.  He knows Dr. M's tactics well, but his personality does not jive with the tactics.  Mahathir is electrifying when it comes to action, Najib is not.

However, Najib will probably stay in power unless something drastic happens like 1 million people taking to the streets.  He has delayed elections, both UMNO and the General Elections, and his cabinet actions may be enough to delay or cover up investigations into scandals uncovered by the press.

His tactics might work for now, but people will remember.  No one can forget GST especially.  He can survive, but so far people haven't seen he is capable.  The way Najib conducts himself, he must be waiting for a magical fairy to appear and save Malaysia.

What are the costs?  Lost time for BN to get itself back on the right track.  The next general election odds for BN failing has gone up.

I love the Edge newspaper but....

Unfortunately, the print edition of the Edge is no longer available due to the government putting a ban on the publication.  I, as a user is forced to use the website which has a lot of information, but just isn't for me.

The website is what I would call a disaster.  I'll outline the major problems with the site:

1.  Too cluttered with information.  I don't know what is important, what is not, what is international news, what is Malaysian news.  Some news has to do with commodities.  Some are unrelated.  Even the star business section does a better job of delivering relevant news items to the reader.  It feels like a site that just spams articles out.

2.  It's best part "In our Print Edition", near the bottom of the home page is updated too infrequently.  I actually wish this part was the main section, but alas, this is just a section that gets stepped on by the spam of unending, irrelevant news at the main section.  It gets updated by like 1-2 articles a day.  They should put more important news here.

3.  The news in the Market and corporate is another disaster.  These sections have all sorts of news.  some if it is useful, some aren't.  Some broker reports should be in a separate section as it isn't market or corporate news.  These two sections are just awful.  If it is an important broker report, please put it in an "important news section"

You could probably cut a lot of stuff out of the front of the website like personal wealth, opinion, news from our partners.  Honestly, I feel the site spams too much information.  I want relevant information like what was printed in the edge daily.

I find it hard to believe that this crappy model of the website could exist for so long.  It takes something like a ban of its printed publications to put the website in the spot light.  

Bersih rally coming soon?

From the Malay Mail:

KUALA LUMPUR, July 6 — Bersih 2.0 will take to the streets and organise its fourth mass rally if Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak does not adequately address the allegations of embezzlement against him in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), group chairman Maria Chin Abdullah said today.

The activist added that Najib must also immediately take a leave of absence from all his government positions to allow investigators to trace the trail of billions of ringgit allegedly wired from 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) into the prime minister’s personal bank accounts.

“Najib must reveal to the public the details of his bank accounts and explain whether the AmBank accounts under his name exist. If they do, then show the transaction details of that day,” news portal the Malaysian Insider quoted Maria as saying today.

- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/bersih-4.0-rally-if-no-answers-on-pms-alleged-embezzlement-polls-watchdog-w#sthash.0fwuhgc9.dpuf

The latest Anti GST rally called by Bersih only rallied around 10,000 Malaysians.  It can be considered a failure as Bersih 2.0 brought in 100,000 people on the streets.

 It's roughly ten days to go until the next Bersih rally will be likely called.  With nothing of significance really being done regarding answering the 1MDB allegations, time is running out for the government.  GST is a whole different animal compared to the 1MDB allegations.  I expect that the turnout will be significantly larger.

Bersih is so far the only major event so far that the government is extremely scared of and will likely heed notice.

Tenaga to bid for all the power assets of 1MDB

From the Edge:

Maintain add with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM15.27: TNB and several local and foreign companies have separately submitted non-binding offers to acquire 1Malaysia Development Bhd’s (1MDB) power assets.

Crucial information, such as the proposed acquisition price and earnings impact, was not disclosed. However, TNB believes that 1MDB’s assets are strong fits for its growth strategy, and stressed that any transaction needs to be value accretive. 

We believe the proposed acquisition, if it proceeds, will likely be neutral to slightly negative to TNB’s valuation in the near term. The acquisition could be negative because 1MDB acquired its power assets for RM18 billion (includes RM6 billion inherited debt) but has since written down about RM1.18 billion of acquisition-related goodwill. 

The transaction could be perceived negatively if TNB’s bidding price implies an enterprise value of more than RM16.82 billion. We think it will have a neutral impact if TNB pays a fair price for the assets. 

 Here is what I don't exactly like about the plan.  Call me skeptical but why is 1MDB insistent that it has many suitors for the power assets, yet it most probably would choose Tenaga.  It looks like a scene from a bad drama.

In the interest of investors and the general public, it would be good for 1MDB not to sell these assets to Tenaga, especially at this price.  No one knows how much the other bidders are paying or if these bidders are fake bidders, knowing the end game will be to sell to Tenaga.  It is stated in the press that many of these power assets were bought at high prices compared to what they would be worth on the open market.

There is a reason why 1MDB cannot IPO these assets.  Since the reasons are not divulged, one possible reason is that the IPO price is way below what the assets are worth on the balance sheet.  The loss would be too much for 1MDB to bear politically and much easier to dump it on Tenaga as they would carry it as a asset on their balance sheet.  If there is a write down, it won't come till long after.

Think twice Tenaga.  Make a smart bid buy taking into account how much they were worth when 1MDB purchased the assets, not how much they bought the assets for.

{ MarketInOut }

Note:  If you are going to purchase MarketInOut, email me before at bursamonitor@gmail.com .  Very important!  You will not regret it. I'll let you know more in email.  Even if you really want to purchase, email me anyway, I can help.
-----------------------------------

I'm going to talk about MarketInOut.  This is a software that I found personally useful and I sense an opportunity to get this site known out there.

How did I come across the site?  I was actually looking for software which could do relative strength as this indicator is a bit difficult to find in most conventional free technical charts.  It took a bit of thinking, but I bit the bullet and subscribed for a year.

Why pay mutual funds the 1-2% management fee, when you can probably select stocks yourself with a little bit of help from a stock screening software like MarketInOut.  

I'll give you a little tip,  Just find a good dividend yielding stock (+5%) also good ROE (12% or more) with a decent market cap and just sit and wait.    Of course you will be smart enough to choose those companies that are not so cyclical (maybe REITS or medical companies).

In the mean time, the dividends pay your bills an or can be reinvested and your money grows slowly but surely.  I'm taking a page out of Kevin O'leary's book the cold Hard Truth on Men, Women, and Money for this screen.  Dividends pay 70% of returns in the stock market.

It can also be fun to scavenge from such a nice selection of companies.  Once you have a good feeling about the company just hit that buy button.  This is when investing is fun. when you know your stock is a solid money earner and returner.  Even when prices go down, hey it's not the end of the world and you get your dividends with the shareholder return to support it.

In my opinion, Marketinout is robust and user friendly.  You can preselect your screens, save your screens, they have technical screens and fundamental screens.  The interface is very intuitive and not like the drop down box at Finviz.  I think my eyes just cried trying to do a simple screen there.  You just select screens from a menu and presto.

Cost wise, Marketinout is also much cheaper than anything out there.    Finviz is 299 USD per year. (ouch)

Again, If you are going to purchase, email me before at bursamonitor@gmail.com .  Very important!  You will not regret it.  I can't say much here, but I'll let you know more in email.  Even if you really want to purchase, email me anyway, I can help.

That's it.  Thank you!

Dr. M is stunning in his methods to encourage whilste blowers

From the Malaysia Insider:

As Putrajaya hunts down those behind information leaks about an ongoing probe into 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and allegations of fund transfers to the prime minister's accounts, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said that covering and hiding of evidence were also crimes.

Those who did so would be aiding and abetting criminals and they too, should be tried under the law, the former prime minister said today.

Writing in his blog, Dr Mahathir, who has been vocal in criticising Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak over debt-ridden state investor 1MDB, added that those who had gathered evidence, but only handed them over when the case was proven, cannot be freed from the charge of abetting.

He urged those with information but who were covering up to "make the right decision".

"There is risk in whistle-blowing, but there is also risk in covering-up, in aiding and abetting.

"You are really between the devil and the deep sea.

"You must make the decision now or forever regret," he wrote.

Dr Mahathir questioned Putrajaya on its policy towards whistleblowers, noting that at one time Malaysia believed in protecting such people for a greater good.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/hiding-information-also-a-crime-dr-mahathir-says-as-putrajaya-hunts-for-1md#sthash.Lw0EgEg3.dpuf

A book can be written about Mahathir's school of thought on politics.  Instead of complaining that the government should protect whistblowers as 90 percent of the population does, he goes the total 180 degree route and says withholding vital information is a crime as well.  Both methods have the same end effect in encouraging whistleblowing, but are using different methods to get there.

The method's of ex-pm Mahathir is extremely relevant today.  He's fighting fire with fire.  Get offensive with people's mindsets as the current government is also getting offensive with oppressing people.  This will force people into game theory mode where they will do what is best for themselves where the truth will likely come out.

Mahathir's aggressive style of politics is something Najib won't be able to withstand.

The telco space getting quite competitive

I just got the following Ad in the mailbox:

First, Celcom was offering postpaid plans at RM 35 for 3 gb of data, plus discounted calling services.  They're are basically eating the other telcos lunch.  Not so long ago 2GB of data cost anywhere from RM50 a month and more.  Now, Celcom has had enough and wants to take market share.

People seem to think TM is immune from competition. Notably, TimedotCom is offering 20 MBps for 180 per month, while Unifi is offering 10 MBps for the same price, but they do include free hypp tv services.  Speed is a major issue however.

I've tried HyppTV.  It's nothing to shout about.  They really need better movie services to even be competitive with Astro.  It appears that TM is rather uncomfortable with the broadcasting industry as Astro is an imposing force.  Hence, their execution is lacking severely with poor content and poor investment.  I don't think they believe they can seriously contend with Astro.

Unifi seems to be losing marketshare to timedotcom and are now offering 30 Mbps for 199 a month.  Competition seems real in the telco industry and nobody is immune except for maybe Astro.  It really seems to be getting ugly out there!

Sunsuria is piquing my interest

From the Edge:

KUALA LUMPUR (July 10): Sunsuria Bhd’s shares rose 4.08% to RM1.02 on the back of the impending launch of the RM1 billion gross development value (GDV) of Phase 1 of its Sunsuria City township in Sepang.

At 10.42am today, Sunsuria (valuation: 0; fundamental: 2.5) recorded a four sen increase, giving it a market capitalisation of RM620.8 million.

According to its chairman Datuk Ter Leong Yap, the phase comprises residential including 200 linked houses priced about RM500,000 and apartments costing RM360,000 onwards, retail and commercial spaces.

The soft launch of the phase is expected in mid-September.

Any time a property counter starts moving higher, on an impending sales launch makes me want to learn more about the company.  I may end up attending the launch and have a look at what's going on.

Nothing like on the ground research to see what's out there.

Bank Negara Reserves still robust

From the Edge:

KUALA LUMPUR (July 7): Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) international reserves as at June 30 amounted to RM398.1 billion (US$105.5 billion), which is 0.96% or RM3.8 billion higher than RM394.3 billion as at May 29.

In its statement today, the central bank said the reserves' position is sufficient to finance 8.2 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Foreign currency reserves make up US$96.9 billion or 91.8% of total international reserves.

BNM’s international reserves has fell to RM390.2 billion in mid-June, from RM394.3 billion on May 29, mainly due to large outflow of foreign funds, putting pressure on the local currency.

Foreign Reserves don't appear to be declining as the ringgit fundamentally right now is still alright.  I've said it all along, but I really can't explain the predicament other than the ringgit market is extremely illiquid and no one wants to take a long ringgit stance  at this point.  This will likely continue until bad economic news hits the markets in the next few months.

At that point, likely the market may range due to the profiting on the news phenomena.

The Ringgit will likely endure the pain for now.

It is possible that more illiquid markets will tend to move before the news hits, while the liquid markets move as the news evolve and are more stubborn.

A brief respite

The news has been abuzz aplenty the last few days.  Extreme shifts in sentiment from bearish to not so bearish.

1.  Fitch takes off the negative warning on Malaysia.  This is sort of a weird event.  A lot of people are actually still negative regardless of the Fitch statement.  It could bode well for a short term rally.

2.  1MDB seems to have been getting some reprieve due to an industrial saboteur caught in Thailand apparently spreading lies in return for money.  This has led to a softer stance by the government in considering for 1MDB's debt to be put on the government's balance sheet and some acknowledgement of criticism of the state investment fund.

3.  The Edge markets has gotten a letter regarding printing slanderous events on 1MDB that it is accused did not have a reasonable basis over.  Truthfully, the media does tend to jump to conclusions, but I'd like to see some evidence regarding the whistleblower reports which The Edge bases its articles on was not fabricated.

I hope TNB reconsiders buying 1MDB's power assets

From MalaysiaKini:

WSJ added that Goldman Sachs, which received a handsome commission for raising US$3 billion (RM11.22 billion) in bonds for 1MDB, was pressed to do so quickly shortly before the general election.

"Goldman Sachs Group Inc arranged the bond sale and took on extra risk to get the deal done quickly at 1MDB’s request, according to a person familiar with the matter, earning unusually high profits as a result," it said.

Shortly after the general election, Kinibiz reported that Genting made an unexpected RM190 million in donations, believed to be related to the election.

It's noted that 1MDB took a 1.2 billion dollar impairment charge on those power assets, but it puts into question the actual worth of the power plants under the 1MDB name.  Did it overpay for all the other plants as well in return for "political contributions"?

Tenaga I hope will rethink their strategy over these power plants.  Buying them is good, but if they overpay, it could be negative.  It's very much on Tenaga to do an objective purchase of these power plants.  At some point all GLCs seem to have limited upside potential, the rally was good while it lasted.

Top Glove impressive earnings

From the Edge:

Top Glove’s third quarter of financal year 2015 (3QFY15) net profit of RM72.3 million exceeded ours and consensus’ expectations by a variance of more than 7%. Cumulative nine months (9MFY15) net profit of RM177 million accounted for 82.1% and 83.4% of ours and consensus’ full-year forecasts, respectively.

The growth in Top Glove’s revenue was mainly attributable to the increase in sales volume by 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 9MFY15 and a stronger US dollar against the ringgit. The increase in sales volume stemmed from both of its main glove segments, namely natural rubber gloves, which increased 9% y-o-y, and nitrile gloves, which increased 18% y-o-y. During the quarter, the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the ringgit was RM3.64 to US$1.

Meanwhile, the group’s 9MFY15 profit after tax and minority interests grew substantially by 19.5% y-o-y to RM177 million. The surge in earnings was mainly due to lower operating expenses, lower minority interest and a stronger US dollar against the ringgit. The operating expenses for 9MFY15 fell 1.4% due to the decommissioning of several old plants supported by the ongoing internal improvements in quality, efficiency and cost control measures. These lower operating expenses translated into better operating profit margin, especially for its Malaysian and Chinese operations.

The 9MFY15 margin for Malaysia is 13.7%, while that for China is 6.3%. The higher margins were mainly from its higher production of nitrile gloves, which carries a higher margin compared with natural rubber gloves.

Most people would think the rubber glove industry is a mature industry.  Apparently most people are wrong and Top Glove is proving it.  They were able to lower the costs of gloves.  This should not happen in a mature industry.  They will be reaping profits like no tomorrow until the others catch up.

Looks like most of the other glove makers are behind the curve.

Human trafficking the reason Digi is down?

Digi is one of the largest companies and its share has been rip roaring.  But why is it not doing well this year?

From the Edge:

(May 8): President Barack Obama’s effort to build the largest trade alliance in the Pacific faces a roadblock in the Senate, where a bill to give the White House "fast track" authority  in trade negotiations is hung up over Malaysia’ dismal record on human trafficking.  On Wednesday, the road to the Trans Pacific Partnership got even rockier, thanks to Democratic Senator Robert Menendez.

The president and Senate Republicans find themselves on the same side here, pushing for a trade promotion authority measure that would force Congress to take an up-or-down vote on trade pacts -- including Obama's TPP -- without adding any amendments.

The Pacific trade pact, which is still being negotiated, is a vital to Obama's legacy and potentially the keystone of the administration’s oft-criticized rebalance to Asia.

Menendez last month added an amendment to the fast-track measure that would ban that trade status to any country that the State Department classifies as a Tier 3 (the worst level) violator on human trafficking. Malaysia, which aspires to be part of TPP, is Tier 3. And Mendendez heightened that pressure this week in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, where he openly questioned whether the White House was putting inappropriate pressure on the State Department to move Malaysia to the less-odious Tier 2.

The whole human trafficking fiasco has put Malaysia in a hard place.  On one had it may choose to try and go for the TPP.  This would entail immigration crackdowns and deportation.  On the other hand, it could continue to do what they are doing and just keep going down the same route of lax enforcement of immigration.

For those who don't know, Malaysia has massive amounts of foreign workers.

The reason why Digi has gone up so much was on the back of migrant workers.  Digi is the lowest prepaid provider.  For cash strapped migrant workers, this is their communication source and Digi benefits the most.

If Malaysia puts a stop to the migrant worker inflow, yes Digi will go down.  But honestly I don't see this happening.  Malaysia needs labor to construct its mega projects over the next few years.  Digi is  shaping up to be a nice buy.  I think TPP inclusion is secondary at this point in Malaysia's eyes.

Eco World

From the Edge:

KUALA LUMPUR (June 17): Eco World International Bhd (EWI), a special purpose entity set up by the major shareholders of Eco World Development Group Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) to acquire real estate assets for development overseas, has withdrawn its plans to list as a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that was to raise RM1.5 billion from the exercise.

Instead, the property company is seeking a direct listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia, looking to raise a higher sum of RM2 billion.

EWI would have been the country's first property SPAC.

EWI executive vice-chairman Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said it will file an initial public offering (IPO) application within the next three months.

"We are planning to list the company by the end of this year," he told a press conference on Eco World’s second-quarter financial results and EWI update today.

 I can't think of another company quite like Eco World in Malaysia.  I can think of two very relevant companies in the world similar to Eco World, Apple and Tesla.

You might be thinking, no way Eco World compares to Apple and Tesla.  But they are similar in one major area.  I call it the psycho factor.  Tesla is a car company and people go nuts over their cars.  There are Tesla car club members. I never heard of a car club until I heard of Tesla.  In the same regard, when Apple products launch, you can see people queuing up around the block to get the newly released apple product.

Eco World has the same psycho effect on crowds.  Queue's of people lining up at 6 am to try and get the newest project launch.  What other companies do you know that drive people into a psycho frenzy whenever they launch something new?

Economics of selling and buying a new car

I decided to deviate slightly off the share market topic and write about buying and selling used cars.  Everyone will have to buy and sell used cars at sometime in their life.  So I think people will find this post useful.

Buying and selling used cars are interesting because mainly there are so many used cars of all shapes and sizes.

I myself am trying to sell off an old 1995 BMW 3 series e36.  It's not a bad car, I happen to think of all the models in that era, it is one of the nicest for its class.

Here are some the buying and selling used car economics:

1.  Every 5 years your car will approximately decrease in value by 50 percent.   

Judging by this, usually the best value of a car is gotten around the 10 year mark.  By that time, the car will be over 75% lower than its sale price.  Assuming a car is 75k at year 10, If you would buy at 10 year and sell at the 15 year mark, the cost would be 8k per year.    If you would buy at the 10 year mark and sell at the 20 year mark, the cost would be 5-6k per year.  But this is without the maintenance charges.

2.  Best time to buy a used car is after the model changes, and the best time to sell is just before the model changes.

This is super interesting.  The main reason for this anomaly is the difference between model changes is usually quite drastic, producing sort of a step pattern price chart.  I found the difference between a 2008 model now and a 2005 bmw model is not much different only about 10k difference, while a 2004 model is half the price of the 2005 model.  Unfortunately most people won't be able to take advantage of this because they will need to buy and sell their car and the same time.

3.  People will generally want to keep the best car of that era for as long as possible and would rather not sell it if they could.  

This is a postulation of sorts and can't be proven, but I'd argue that the best car in class for that era, people would not want to sell it.  And therefore supply limited while demand for that car would still be there.

4.  Resale probabilities of smaller engine cars are better than larger engine cars due to the Malaysian road tax system.

At this price level, Road tax is a significant percentage of the car's cost.  2.5 to 3 litre engines are less in demand due to 1.6k road tax per year.

5.  At 20 years old, the highest resale value does not always equal the easiest to sell.  After all if a dealer has 5 used cars of that era, it is unlikely he will take another one on.

Common cars at 20 years old become hard to sell as the market is flooded with these types of cars and the market for old cars isn't a huge one.

The only part of these rules which I'm not fully confident on is part 3 and 5.  These are kind of speculatory and not proven and also have exceptions.  At any rate most of these can be confirmed with a call to your used car dealer.

Industrial Production. Not a tier 1 indicator

From the Edge:

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s Industrial Production Index (IPI), which tracks overall industrial activity, grew at a slower pace of 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2015, compared with a revised 7.1% y-o-y in March.

According to the Department of Statistics, the slower growth was driven by an increase in outputs in the manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors. The manufacturing, mining and electricity indices recorded production growth of 4.1%, 3.9% and 3% respectively, according to the latest statistics.

The IPI figure was below market consensus of 4.5%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the IPI in April 2015 recorded a marginal decrease of 0.4% month-on-month, following declines of 1% in manufacturing, 1.9% in mining and 1% in electricity. Under the manufacturing sector, output growth of 4.1% y-o-y was recorded in April, driven by increases in petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products (3.6%), electrical and electronics products (4%) and food, beverages and tobacco (5.5%). The mining sector registered growth of 3.9%, thanks to the increase of the crude oil index of 15%.

The slower April IPI pace comes after the implementation of the 6% goods and services tax (GST) which took effect on April 1, hurting consumer spending and demand.

For the first four months of the year, overall IPI rebounded by 5.8% against 4.7% growth a year ago.

While the IPI does tell a lot of about what the industries are doing, it isn't likely to be considered a reliable share market indicator, at least not in the near term.

The problem with production is that while factories produce, it won't necessarily sell at the consumer level just yet.  The product could sit on the shelves for some time and then translate to sales.  This is especially true for electronic products, some foods (not all), and non perishable items.

The factories could also produce items just for restocking as the recent GST has brought consumption forward quite a bit as consumers purchase items pre-GST.  We don't know and won't know how it affects consumption and growth.  I consider it a non-event.  Nothing is better than jobs, consumption, and exports for determining GDP.