Top buy and forget dividend picks today

Summary:

1.  Safest, from the economy and government change:  IGBREIT and KLCCP

2.  Next safest from economy, but not government change:  Magnum, Berjaya Sports 

3.  Moderately safe:  Maxis, Carlsberg, BAT

                                                                             


With the top 100 largest Market cap list, what can a conservative investor buy today?    Here are shares with dividends over 4.5%

Any of the following are what I consider potential buys with a dividend better than the Fixed Deposit of 3.5-4%  A lot of banks are trying to attract capital giving very attractive rates.

But, which of these few can really stand the test of time?

			ROE LFI	ROE LFY	Dividend yield
YTL	18.68	bil	6.7	11.3	7.79
MAGNUM	4.2	bil	14.8	10.4	7.58
BJTOTO	4.958	bil	45	55	6.55
IGBREIT	4.51	bil	7.5	8.7	6.39
YTLPOWR	11.85	bil	0.9	11	6.37
UOADEV	3.06	bil	11.28	12	6.3
MAYBANK	88.59	bil	12.56	13.57	6.06
BIMB	6.4	bil	17.4	18.5	5.67
CARLSBG	3.42	bil	56	72	5.67
SUNREIT	4.54	bil	6.18	11	5.62
MBSB	7	bil	10.5	29.5	5.3
MAXIS	50.1	bil	41.45	32.05	5.25
GASMSIA	4.48	bil	11.4	16.6	5.18
AMBANK	20.28	bil	14.7	13.9	5.16
PAVREIT	4.43	bil	6.4	13.9	5.14
BAT	19.96	bil	159	174	4.76
KLCC	12.005	bil	5.95	7.91	4.75
HAPSENG	9.46	bil	11	20	4.65

No doubt most of these companies are doing alright.  Most have ROE last year in double digits.    If you ask me, the best two shares to buy right now is likely KLCC and IGBREIT.  These two give great dividends, but their ROE is on the low side.

KLCC is the ultimate city centre shopping centre and has massive influxes of tourists every year, not at all dependent on the whims and moves of the local economy, while Midvalley is the ultimate shopping centre for Malaysians.  It is centrally located between Petaling Jaya, KL, and Cheras.  

The shopping mall is forever full and even when GST rolled around, Midvalley was just business as usual.  

I tend to doubt Pavillion REIT as a stalwart when times get bad.  It's a great shopping center, but people will prefer KLCC.  

Next out of all the shares, I tend to like Maxis and Carlsberg.  These two will likely be around as Malaysians need to make phone calls and drink beer, no matter how the economy is doing. 

As long as BN is in government, the only untouchables are likely the REITs.  All the other companies have problems from commodity cycles to banks, to property.  If it's not that, the gaming companies Magnum and BJ Toto is dependent on gaming policy.  The gaming companies are great, but every election, it's the same problem.  Banks are alright, but they are susceptible to interest rate policy and are extremely leveraged.  

Of the two shares, Maxis and Carlsberg, I believe Maxis has the greater policy risk should a government change take place.  As of now, an oligopoly exists in the telecommunication space and they are making profits and costs of calls aren't coming down as fast as one would think.  An opposition led government might look at this particular industry to liberalize.

Alcohol products are taxed extremely high already, so it is doubtful that a new government would raise taxes.  Carlsberg should be the safer bet.

The fate of number forecast operators would be hardest to predict if a new government change were to take place.  No one knows what an opposition led government would do.  But in the event the government does not change hands, they are safer than Carlsberg and Maxis, in that the companies are money churners and carry very little inventory and overhead risk.

To recap: 

1.  Safest, from the economic cycles and government change:  IGBREIT and KLCCP

2.  Next safest from the economic cycles, but not government change:  Magnum, Berjaya Sports 

3.  Moderately safe:  Maxis, Carlsberg, BAT